Google has published a fair amount of its own thinking on this over the years, mostly through web.dev, the Chrome team's engineering blog, and the public Chrome User Experience Report. None of it reads like marketing. It reads like engineers trying to explain why a page that loads in three seconds behaves so differently from one that loads in one.
The pattern that keeps showing up isn't a straight line. Bounce probability doesn't creep upward evenly as load time increases. It behaves more like a threshold effect: people tolerate a little friction, then their patience drops off quickly once a page crosses some point that varies by device, connection, and what they came to do.
"The relationship between speed and user behavior isn't linear. Small delays are absorbed. Past a certain point, tolerance falls away fast, and that point moves depending on what the user expects to happen next."
Paraphrased from Google's publicly available web performance documentation
This is why the blog exists in the current form. We're not trying to sell anyone a fix. We're trying to read the same public documents, the same CrUX dataset, the same HTTP Archive snapshots that Google references, and write down what we notice without inflating it into a bigger claim than the data supports.